Saturday Racing Preview
Won by the likes of Galileo, Harbinger, Nathaniel, Highland Reel and Enable, this weekend’s feature race is the Group 1 King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Qipco Stakes. Derby winner Adayar will look to prove his class, whilst the extremely exciting Love bids to give Aiden O’Brien his fifth win in the race. Mishriff will hope to add to his 10 million pounds in prize money, whilst Broome and Wonderful Tonight will look to back up impressive performances last time out. Lone Eagle is once again partnered by Frankie Dettori, and his trainer Martyn Meade has been quite bullish about his chances. Last Saturday the preview highlighted Happy Romance at 8/1 along with a couple of short-priced winners. Fingers crossed the good form continues!
Honey can get us off to a Sweet start at Ascot
The first race of the day from Ascot is a Listed contest over seven furlongs. Charlie Appleby and Godolphin will be hoping New Science can bounce back after a disappointing run in the Chesham at Royal Ascot. That form would read quite well now and there is every chance the soft ground wasn’t to his liking. Both Mr McCann and Cachet come into this on the back of fine runs at Newmarket, but it is Honey Sweet 7/1 that I will be siding with after she caught my eye staying on at HQ. She finished fifth that day, five lengths behind the unbeaten Albany winner, Sandrine. This represents strong form and I believe Honey Sweet has been crying out for this step up in trip. She stayed on powerfully to record a debut success over 5 furlongs but in her starts at 6 furlongs since she has appeared to be slightly outpaced. She also visually appeared to be a little unbalanced at Newmarket and this return to a flat track should really suit. The inform Clifford Lee takes the ride and I expect this filly to make her presence felt. With form in the book on soft ground, any rain that does fall isn’t a problem.
Professional youngster can outrun her odds in Group 3
Next up on the card at Ascot we have the Group 3 Princess Margaret Keenland Stakes over six furlongs. System and Desert Dreamer have the strongest form in the book and top the market, whilst Archie Watson and Hollie Doyle team up with impressive first time out scorer Nazanin. These two-year-old contests can often be trappy little affairs, with unexposed sorts lurking at longer odds. I am hoping Zain Claudette 14/1 could be just that for Ismail Muhammed and Ray Dawson. Sent off an unfancied 25/1 shot on debut, Zain Claudette travelled like a professional and was just pipped close home by Hellomydarlin, who has since come out and placed in a French Group 2. She appeared to improve nicely for the run and cruised to success at Newmarket next time out. The form of that contest is yet to be tested but she gave me a strong visual impression. I love the way she travels through her contests and when Ray Dawson asked her to go and win her race, she shot clear and extended nicely to the line. She will need to step up on that form but is an improving filly whose professional attitude can stand her in good stead.
Progressive colt can earn a second career success
The third race on the Ascot card is the Porsche Handicap over a mile where just the seven runners are set to go to post. King Power’s son of Frankel, Fantastic Fox, heads the current betting and possess some excellent form in behind the likes of Derab and Snow Lantern. He is clearly a talented individual but on his last start he completely threw his chances away by running extremely keenly throughout. As a result, I am quite keen to take him on and will do so with the progressive Latest Generation 4/1 for Simon and Ed Crisford. Three starts this season have yielded form figures of 622 and I believe he’s now ready to get his in front. His last start saw him go down half a length to Royal Fleet who is yet to taste defeat. He gave Royal Fleet 1lb that day and has gone up 5lbs for the narrow defeat. I still believe there is milage in his current mark and William Buik is back on board having rode him to his only career success so far.
Two against the field in cracking International Stakes
An extremely good-looking field of 22 have assembled for this year’s Moet & Chandon International Stakes over seven furlongs. Motakhayyel currently heads the betting after completing back-to-back Bunbury Cup wins last time out. He is clearly in the form of his life and is due to go up a further 6lbs, so connections are looking to strike whilst the iron is hot. With course and distance form in the book he has standout claims but a whole host of these, who raced against him last time out, now find themselves a little better off at the weights and at much bigger odds.
With plenty of Bookmakers offering generous place terms I have decided to select two against the field, both of whom finished in behind Motakhayyel last time out. The first of those was Shine So Bright 12/1 who stormed home to finish fourth and would look particularly attractive off his current handicap mark. A former Group 2 winner and rated as high as 115, he finds himself on a mark of 100 and his run last time out represented his best effort for a while. To my surprise the handicapper dropped him a further pound for that effort, and I subsequently can’t ignore him. Usually a blistering front runner, he was slightly slow out the gates and Silvestre De Sousa was forced to adopt hold up tactics. They seemed to do the trick as Shine So Bright settled nicely and powered home into the frame. If he can settle like that once more, and sit a little closer to the pace, he’s handicapped to go extremely well and has a 4lb pull at the weights with the favourite.
The second horse I couldn’t ignore was Kimifive 25/1 who dead heated for fifth just in behind Shine So Bright. Joseph Tuite’s inmate finds himself just a pound higher than when he finished a head second to Summerghand in the Stewards’ Cup this time last year and we know he enjoys the hustle and bustle of a big field handicap. He travelled well for a long way last time out and with Ray Dawson claiming 3lbs off, he looks to be in form and on a dangerous handicap mark. At 25/1 he is a lovely each way play.
Adayar can emulate the great Galileo
Just the six runners are set to go to post for this year’s Group 1 King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Qipco Stakes. With the ground currently Good to Firm but a deluge of rain potentially arriving it is hardly surprising to see a major gamble taking place on David Menuisier’s Wonderful Tonight, who thrives in softer conditions. Her price has crashed into around 13/2 with punters expecting plenty of rain. Should that rain fall, Love would surely be worth taking on at the top of the market, having been withdrawn on account of the going in the past. Wonderful Tonight may be the mud lover in the pack, but she has to concede 8lbs to Derby winner Adayar 9/4 who is Officially Rated 4lbs higher than her. Godolphin’s Epsom hero is another who won’t mind any rain that falls having won the Derby on Good to Soft ground and recorded another win on Soft. Fellow three-year-old Lone Eagle will also enjoy cut in the ground, but I suspect he needs to find a bit more on form. Mishriff and Broome have it all to do at the weights and I will subsequently side with Adayar to emulate the great Galileo, by becoming the first Derby winner to win the King George since the legend himself.
Palmer and Marquand can strike in penultimate Ascot handicap
The final race I will look at from Ascot is the 4:10, a Class 4 handicap over a mile and a half. Just the six runners are set to go to post, and I quite like the chances for Good Soul 9/1 for Hugo Palmer and Tom Marquand. With just the three lifetime starts to date he comes into this one of the more inexperienced runners, but also the least exposed. In those three starts there is some eye-catching pieces of form that indicate his mark of 77 could well underestimate his talents. Two starts back he beat Glen Again (now Officially Rated 86) and Sea La Rosa (now Officially Rated 83). He was in receipt of 5lbs from Glen Again but off levels with Sea La Rosa. Stepped up to a mile and a half for his last start, he finished strongly but was unable to reel in the now 102 rated Law Of The Sea, giving him 9lbs! If Good Soul is ready to rumble after a small break, I think he has great chance off a mark of 77.
There’s only Juan for me in the Sky Bet York Stakes
The big race of the day from York is the Group 2 Sky Bet York Stakes over an extended mile and two furlongs. Just the five runners have been declared but we have a fascinating little contest. Mohaafeth looks the clear pick on Official Ratings at the weights, but his price reflects that, and I wasn’t as impressed as many were by his Royal Ascot win. Armory tops the Official Ratings but his close proximity to Love last time out may flatter him slightly after a slowly run race. He also has to concede 12lbs to Mohaafeth and 3lbs to my selection in the race, Juan Elcano 4/1. Kevin Ryan’s son of Frankel seemingly improved significantly for his reappearance, and step up in trip, when flying home to land the Wolferton Stakes at Royal Ascot. He beat a horse called Patrick Sarsfield who has some good form against Group 1 winner Skalleti, so I am inclined to think he can make his presence felt now in Group 2 company. Having finished fifth in a Guineas and third in a Group 2 over course and distance, Juan Elcano has shown glimpses of class, but it may well be he has matured and improved for being a year older. At the prices, in a trappy race, I think he is worth chancing.
Take a chance on Chief Little Hawk
Over to HQ now and a speculative selection on one of my favourite lesser-known horses. Chief Little Hawk 14/1 burst onto the scene for his former trainer Aiden O’Brien, but his career hasn’t gone to plan since. He did catch my eye on his last start though, when finishing second to San Andreas at Fairyhouse. He appeared to get caught in a slight pocket but stayed on nicely to beat some good horses. That race has worked out well with San Andreas hitting the frame in two better contests since, and the fourth Free Solo going on to place second on his next start. Chief Little Hawk has since been moved to the Jamie Osbourne yard and will race off a 6lb lower mark than in Ireland. Having won off 96 last summer we know he is on a winnable mark, and I expect him to enjoy the uphill finish. If he is ready to rumble first time up for his new trainer, I think he’s worth chancing at a big price.
Thank you for reading and as always, best of luck if you’re having a bet!
By Sam Rideout
Follow me on Twitter – @TheTr17pleP
