League 2 Final Day Preview – Saturday 8th May
The relegation battle in League 2 has already been won and lost with Grimsby and Southend both going down whatever happens on the final day. All eyes will be on the top of the table on the final day with the title, automatic promotion and playoff positions still up for grabs.
Cheltenham are currently on top with 79 points, Cambridge sit 2nd on 77 points and Bolton are in third with 76 points. For Bolton to win the league they would need to win, hope Cheltenham and Cambridge lose and see a swing of between 14-16 goals on goal difference, so it looks like their focus should just be on securing automatic promotion as Morecambe are only a point behind them in 4th and any slip up from Bolton or Cambridge could see one of those sides lose automatic promotion. Morecambe are guaranteed to be in the play offs and have a free hit as should they win or draw, they would have a chance of going up automatically. There are 5 teams fighting it out for the 3 remaining play off spots. Those positions are currently occupied by
Newport – 72 Points
Tranmere – 72 Points
Forest green – 70 Points
Exeter – 69 Points
Salford – 68 Points
For Newport and Tranmere a point would be enough to guarantee a spot in the play-offs. Forest Green know that if they win they are in. Exeter and Salford are the teams who need a slip up from someone above them. Lets take a look at the games on the final day and what the results could mean
Cheltenham vs Harrogate
Cheltenham win –Cheltenham will be Champions
Draw – Cambridge would be champions if they won and Cheltenham would go up in 2nd place
Harrogate win – Cambridge would be champions if they won and Cheltenham would go up in 2nd place
Cambridge vs Grimsby
Cambridge win – Cambridge could go up as champions if Cheltenham don’t win
Draw – Cambridge would still likely go up automatically as for them not to you would need Bolton to win, Morecambe to win and improve their goal difference by 13 goals. So a draw would almost certainly be enough for Morecambe to go up automatically
Grimsby win– Cambridge would lose automatic promotion if Bolton and Morecambe won
Crawley vs Bolton
Crewe Win – Bolton would lose automatic promotion if Morecambe win or draw
Draw – Bolton would lose automatic promotion if Morecambe win
Bolton Win – Bolton would be guaranteed automatic promotion
Morecambe vs Bradford
Morecambe win – Morecambe would be automatically promoted should Bolton lose or draw and/or Cambridge lose
Draw – Morecambe would go up automatically if Bolton lose
Bradford win – Morecambe will have no chance of automatic promotion and will be in the playoffs
Southend vs Newport
Southend win – Newport would lose their playoff spot should Tranmere, Exeter and Forest Green win
Draw – Newport would be guaranteed a spot in the play offs
Newport win –Newport are guaranteed a spot in the play offs
Tranmere vs Colchester
Tranmere win – Tranmere are guaranteed to be in the play offs
Draw – Tranmere are guaranteed to be in the play offs
Colchester win –Tranmere would miss out on the play-offs should Forest green and Exeter win
Oldham vs Forest Green
Oldham win – Forest Green would miss out on the playoffs should Exeter draw and/or Salford win
Draw – Forest Green would miss out on the play-offs if Exeter and/or Salford win
Forest Green win – Forest Green will be guaranteed a spot in the play-offs
Exeter vs Barrow
Exeter win – Exeter would be in the playoffs if Newport and/or Tranmere lose or if Forest Green didn’t win
Draw – Exeter would be in the playoffs if Forest Green lose and Salford don’t win
Barrow win – Exeter would miss out on the playoffs
Salford vs Leyton Orient
Salford win – Salford would be in the playoffs if Forest Green and Exeter both don’t win
Draw – Salford will miss out on the playoffs
Leyton Orient win – Salford will miss out on the playoffs
We are going to focus on the results market as the best angle for bets on the final day of league 2 with so much still to play for.
Cheltenham know that a win means they are champions and will be the cherry on top of the cake for them. They play a Harrogate side who have been very inconsistent. Cheltenham know they are going up whatever happens so should view this game as an opportunity and we fancy them to get the job done at home. Cambridge know that a win means they are up and they play the bottom side Grimsby. Cambridge could not have asked for a better game on the final day and at home, against the worst side in the league with promotion on the line, they should be able to get the win that will guarantee their promotion to league 1. Bolton face a tricky final day where its mathematically possible that they could finish 1st or 5th, away at Crawley who have already beaten Bolton this season, its not a game that we are going to look to get involved in. Morecambe have a free hit at automatic promotion and they play a Bradford side who have lost 5 of their last 6 league games. Morecambe know that a win means anything other than a Bolton win in their game would see Morecambe get promoted tomorrow, and we expect them to see off a struggling Bradford side. Newport are away at already relegated Southend and they know that a point will be enough to guarantee a spot in the playoffs, and we believe its highly likely they wont lose this game against a very poor Southend side. Tranmere are in the same boat of knowing that a point will be enough for them to guarantee the playoffs, but they face a Colchester side who have won 3 of their last 4 games and these sides met just 6 weeks ago where it ended 2-2, so we wont be getting involved in what looks a tricky final day fixture for Tranmere given Colchester’s recent form. Forest Green travel to take on Oldham who have won 3 of their last 6 league games, whilst Forest Green have only won 2 of their last 10 league games, so it doesn’t look simple for Forest Green and should they slip up Exeter and Salford will be the teams waiting to pounce. Exeter are at home to Barrow and if Forest Green lose a draw would be enough for Exeter to sneak into the playoffs. Barrow have lost 4 of their last 5 league games and Exeter have won their last 2 league games which has given them a chance of the playoffs on the final day, though these sides met less than a month ago when Barrow won 2-1. Salford take on Leyton Orient and Salford know that if either Exeter or Forest Green win, that will make it impossible for Salford to reach the playoffs. Leyton orient have lost their last 3 league games but in those 3 games they scored 5 goals and conceded 9 goals. Given that recent Orient games have seen allot of goals and Salford need to win this to have any chance, we feel there is a good chance that both teams score and the game could have a few goals. Leyton Orient have nothing much to play for but they have been scoring goals in these last few games and the games they have played in have been quite open and attacking. Salford games are usually the opposite but they have to come out of their shell slightly here as they need a win.
The best bet we have picked out is this 4 fold
Cheltenham to win
Cambridge to win
Newport +1 goal handicap
Both teams to score in Salford vs Leyton orient
Which pays 4.89/1 Skybet
